Preseason Hype vs. Reality
The theory: ESPN and the pollsters prop up the SEC in the preseason to grease its path to the Playoff. So we checked every preseason AP Top 25 of the Playoff era (2014–2025) against where those teams actually finished. The verdict is more interesting than the conspiracy.
The SEC opened 2025 with 10 preseason Top 25 teams, the biggest bloc of the Playoff era. 6 made the 12-team field. None reached the title game.
| Preseason | Team | Finished | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Texas | #12 | 10–3 |
| #5 | Georgia | #6 | 12–2 |
| #8 | Alabama | #9 | 11–4 |
| #9 | LSU | unranked | 7–6 |
| #13 | South Carolina | unranked | 4–8 |
| #15 | Florida | unranked | 4–8 |
| #18 | Oklahoma | #13 | 10–3 |
| #19 | Texas A&M | #8 | 11–2 |
| #21 | Ole Miss | #3 | 13–2 |
| #24 | Tennessee | unranked | 8–5 |
The champion? Indiana, a preseason No. 20 the polls barely believed in. Ten SEC teams got the summer headlines. A Big Ten team nobody ranked got the trophy.
| Conference | Slots | Bust % | Fin. Top 25 | Avg fall | Playoff | SoS all | SoS non-con |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | 82 | 40% | 60% | +5.8 | 21 | 0.575 | 0.561 |
| Big Ten | 59 | 39% | 61% | +5.7 | 15 | 0.554 | 0.584 |
| Pac-12 | 46 | 50% | 50% | +6 | 4 | 0.540 | 0.570 |
| Big 12 | 45 | 49% | 51% | +6 | 6 | 0.545 | 0.548 |
| ACC | 41 | 46% | 54% | +7.2 | 9 | 0.556 | 0.590 |
“Avg fall” = average spots dropped from preseason rank to final AP rank (a team that finishes unranked is counted as 30). “SoS” = average winning percentage of a team’s FBS opponents (higher is tougher); “non-con” drops league games, so it reflects what a team actually chooses to schedule. The SEC’s high overall SoS comes from a deep conference playing itself, not from tough non-conference slates.
- 1AuburnSEC+12.73/6 bust
- 2TCUBig 12+12.33/4 bust
- 3Michigan StateBig Ten+10.34/6 bust
- 4Florida StateACC+9.73/7 bust
- 5Texas A&MSEC+96/8 bust
- 6North CarolinaACC+8.84/5 bust
Avg spots fallen · min. 4 preseason top-25 appearances.
- 1Ohio StateBig Ten+0.80/12 bust
- 2IowaBig Ten+1.52/6 bust
- 3AlabamaSEC+2.10/12 bust
- 4Ole MissSEC+2.13/7 bust
- 5GeorgiaSEC+2.32/12 bust
The blue bloods that actually cash their preseason billing.
- 2024#10Florida StateACC2–10
- 2021#17IndianaBig Ten2–10
- 2016#12Michigan StateBig Ten3–9
- 2015#16Georgia TechACC3–9
- 2024#17Oklahoma StateBig 123–9
- 2016#10Notre DameFBS Independents4–8
- 2025#13South CarolinaSEC4–8
- 2021#15USCPac-124–8
- 2025#15FloridaSEC4–8
- 2016#16UCLAPac-124–8
Method: every team in the preseason AP Top 25 (regular-season Week 1 poll), 2014–2025, matched to its final AP rank, record, Playoff berth, and strength of schedule (average winning percentage of its FBS opponents). Data: CollegeFootballData. Preseason polls are voted by AP media, not by any single network. This measures hype vs. results, whoever is doing the hyping.