Omaha starts tonight, and the first team to ever take the field is one nobody had on a bracket in February. Two programs making their College World Series debut, drawn against each other to open the entire event. Here is what to watch and who SFF is taking.
Two first-timers open the whole thing.
The hottest bat in the bracket wears Troy colors.
The better game waits for the lights.
First pitch, 2 ET.
The country roads opener.
This is history twice over. West Virginia and Troy are both making their first College World Series appearance ever, and the bracket paired them to lead off Day 1. Troy carries the lowest RPI of any Omaha team in 27 years and got in on one of the last at-large bids, so the committee already underrated them. They do not care.
The matchup comes down to one collision of numbers. Troy's staff walked 268 batters this year, 216th nationally, and gave up the 305th-most hits out of 308 schools. West Virginia has scored fewer than nine runs in exactly one of its seven tournament games. Put the hottest offense in the field against the most generous pitching staff in the field and the math turns ugly fast.
The Mountaineers answer with arms most of the field would envy:
- Maxx Yehl carries a 2.10 ERA, fifth-best in the country, and the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year title.
- Chanson Cole is coming off 11 strikeouts on 121 pitches against Cal Poly in the super regional.
- Either one draws the start, and either one is a problem for a strikeout-prone Troy lineup.
Here is why this is the upset-watch game of Day 1, and the receipts are on our own Field Analysis page. Troy went 1-1 against Alabama and 1-1 against Georgia in the regular season. Two SEC teams that are in Omaha right now, four games, an even split. The lowest RPI in the field has already proven it can play with this caliber of competition in actual games, not on paper. That is a very different profile than a typical 38-30 at-large that backed in.
Add the live bat, and this is the one that matters: Jabe "Ruth" Boroff is the hottest hitter in the entire tournament right now. Since the regionals opened he has 6 home runs and 18 RBI, per our postseason stats. That is not a hot week from a role player, that is a middle-of-the-order bat carrying a team through Omaha's front door. Catcher Jimmy Janicki (19 homers, 85 RBI on the year, third in the nation) hits behind the surge. And WVU's bullpen has been lights-out the entire postseason, which usually means regression is loading. Put a red-hot Boroff in a one-run game against a tiring pen and that is the exact recipe for a sweat that goes sideways late.
SFF Pick: West Virginia, but flag it. The pitching gap is real and it is the reason we still take the Mountaineers. But Troy split four games with Alabama and Georgia this year, and Boroff is the hottest bat in the tournament, so the upset is not a fantasy. This is the Day 1 game we are watching with one eye on the bracket. ◆◆◇ medium confidence, upset watch
The nightcap is the better game.
The 7 ET game is the one to clear your schedule for. North Carolina is the lone ACC team in the field and one of the tournament favorites, an explosive lineup with the defense to cover Omaha's big gaps. They survived a winner-take-all super regional against USC where freshman Caden Glauber, maybe the best first-year starter in the country, struck out 11 in the decider.
The angle that decides it: Ole Miss strikes out, a lot, and that is the exact lineup profile that lets a North Carolina arm take over a game. Owen Hull is the bat to watch after walking it off in Game 3 of the Chapel Hill super regional. This is the rare opener where the higher seed is both the safer pick and the more fun team to watch.
SFF Pick: North Carolina. Balance beats variance. Ole Miss can run with anyone for a night, but UNC's floor is higher and their ceiling is the trophy. ◆◆◆ high confidence
Take it to the pick'em.
Both SFF picks are live in tonight's pick'em. West Virginia is the chalk, North Carolina the slightly better value given the strikeout matchup. And if you trust the Troy upset read, plus-money on the Trojans is the leaderboard swing of the night. The board resets every game day, so a cold open does not bury you.
